All fans would agree that AC Milan are not yet back to where they want to be – challenging for honours both domestically and in European football. The new 2020/21 Serie A season is now the tenth since Milan’s title win in 2011, meaning it’s Milan’s longest stretch without a trophy in modern times (we aren’t counting the Supercoppa). But then again, we can point to some green shoots for the club’s revival, including the form shown in the second half of last season and the arrival of players like Sandro Tonali.
Still, there is work to do, both on the training pitch and in the transfer market. Fans seem to be enthused with Stefano Pioli’s tactics on the former, and will have mixed feelings on the board’s movements on the latter. However, the new season gets underway with – arguably – higher hopes among fans than the last, and that’s always a good thing.
But where do the sportsbooks put Milan this season? Odds-setting is, at heart, an objective take on a club’s positioning, both in the present and near future. As it stands, Milan are the fifth-favourites for the title at 20/1 (odds from MBet), coming behind Juventus (20/23), Inter (37/20), Napoli (11/1) and Atalanta (11/1). Most fans would agree that’s a fair assessment for Milan; it’s not as if they have suddenly leapfrogged Juve and Inter over the summer.
Milan will want to make the Top 4
But with modern football betting, the average punter will want more than the main market where you can pick the team you think will be the overall winner of Serie A. Milan might win the Scudetto – anything is possible – but it would be one of the biggest shocks of recent history in Italian football.
Thankfully, other outright markets exist. And while that’s exciting for punters, it can also tell us a bit more about Milan’s standing. For instance, it’s 6/4 that the Rossoneri finish in the Top 4 at the end of the season and grab one of those all-important Champions League places. That’s more of a realistic target for Milan fans and punters, and it puts the team with an applied probability of 40% of doing so.
To get one of those Champions League spots, Milan would have to leapfrog teams like Napoli (4/6) or Atalanta (20/27). While both sides should be respected, it is certainly doable. Indeed, if we are talking of baby steps in Milan’s re-evolution as a top club side, those are the teams that should be targeted.
Europa League an opportunity for Pioli’s men
Looking to Europe and the Europa League, Milan are the third-favourites at 12/1, coming in behind English clubs like Arsenal and Tottenham. Again, this might be a more realistic ambition than suddenly becoming domestic title challengers. But, of course, Milan must do better than the 2018/19 season where the team failed to progress from the group stages.
Finally, it’s worth pointing that bookmakers don’t always get it right. In fact, they often get it wrong. That’s a two-way street for Milan, as the actuaries behind the odds may have undersold or oversold the team’s chances. If it’s the former, fans are in for a very good season. One where progression can lay a foundation for more success in the future. If it’s the latter, then more disappointment awaits. Either way, it’s going to be an intriguing season for Milan as the team looks to get back to where it is supposed to be – at the top table of club football.
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